When the price of gold broke through the $1,000 barrier for the first time in 2008, it wasn’t long before there was speculation if gold could break through the $10,000 per ounce barrier. Of course it’s more difficult for exponential growth over linear growth, and more conservative analysts were content with setting their sites on the next one thousand to $2,000 USD per ounce.
With the spectacular rise of Bitcoin though, gold investors have wondered why gold has not reached five figures yet. It now seems a fair question to ask if gold can emulate the kind of explosive growth that Bitcoin experienced.
Bitcoin was launched in 2009, with the price at a fraction of a penny for 1 Bitcoin. In November 2013 Bitcoin reached $1,000, taking just four years to do so. Bitcoin surpassed parity with the price of gold per ounce in 2017, and hit $10,000 in November 2017. Bitcoin almost got to 20,000 in 2017 before entering a bear market.
In comparison, gold reached $1,000 USD per ounce in March 2008, almost 37 years after the price of gold was decoupled from the USD. It then took over 12 years for gold to reach the $2,000 mark for the first time in 2020. Bitcoin went from $1,000 to $2,000 in three and a half years. From $2,000 in May 2017, Bitcoin then only took 6 months to go to $10,000.
Is gold able to experience the same kind of exponential growth that Bitcoin experienced?
I’m not in the prediction business, but as a curator of gold news I keep a file of gold price forecasts made over the years. Most of the predictions err on the side of caution, and during a bull run it’s easy to be right most of the time.
Since gold reached $1,000 there have been predictions almost every year that gold will eventually reach $10,000. It’s harder to make the big calls though, so most predictions are looking towards the next thousand dollar barrier.
Most of the 10K gold predictions don’t have a target date either. While looking through the Bitcoin price predictions I found an investor who predicted that Bitcoin would reach 10,000 within three years. At the time of the prediction, the price of Bitcoin was trading around the $400 mark. Bitcoin ended up reaching $10,000 a couple of months after the three years. Will there be a commentator that will accurately predict $10,000 gold?
Another question to ask is, would you really want $10,000 gold? According to Peter Hug from Kitco Metals, $10,000 gold would mean the end of the financial system as we know it.
Here are some of the gold price predictions by prominent pundits, from $10,000 and beyond. This list will be continually updated when predictions are published. If you know any other predictions on the record, send them in for inclusion.
2021
$10,000 – Dan Oliver, founder of Myrmikan Capital
‘$10k gold sounds crazy, but it’s easy to get to’, here’s why it hasn’t happened yet
“I look at gold, not in the dollar price of gold…gold is the most stable, monetary medium there ever has been, and that’s why it’s been money for four thousand years,” he said. “I don’t think gold goes to $10,000 in a vacuum, it means the dollar is going down significantly.”
Price at forecast: $1,834.24 USD/oz on 3 February, 2021.
2020
$10,000 over the next several years – AG Thorson, CMT (Chartered Market Technician) at Gold Predict
Gold forecast – how gold prices could exceed $10,000
Price at forecast: $1,899.65 USD/oz on 4 October, 2020.
$20,000 – Pierre Lassonde, chair emeritus of Franco-Nevada
Can gold hit $20,000? Pierre Lassonde talks industry’s future and his legacy
“Should the Dow Jones to gold ratio retrace to 1:1, which it has on several occasions in the past, the gold price could climb to $15,000 to $20,000 an ounce assuming the metal catches up to the Dow, according to Pierre Lassonde, chair emeritus of Franco-Nevada.”
Price at forecast: $1,949.35 USD/oz on 15 September, 2020.
$10,000 or higher over the next four years – Jim Rickards for The Daily Reckoning
Central Banks: Gold’s Greatest Ally
Price at forecast: $1,782 USD/oz on 29 June, 2020.
2019
$10,000 – Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors
Frank Holmes: Gold is going to $10,000
Price at forecast: $1,485.35 USD/oz on 22 October, 2019.
$25,000 in 30 years – Pierre Lassonde, co-founder of Franco-Nevada
Pierre Lassonde says gold could hit $25,000 in 30 years
Price at forecast: $1,522.10 USD/oz on 23 September, 2019.
2018
$10,000 – Jim Rickards for The Daily Reckoning
“Money is gold — and nothing else”
“…my intermediate term forecast is that gold will reach $10,000 per ounce in the course of the current bull market that began in December 2015.”
Price at forecast: $1,315.50 USD/oz on 3 May, 2018.
2017
$10,000 in 2018 – Peter Cooper at The National
Could gold do a bitcoin and hit $10,000 an ounce in 2018?
“Personally I believe the best immediate reason gold might suddenly spike to $10,000 in the course of 2018 – and I am not predicting this as I am not an astrologer – is that US dollar weakness looks to be an established trend now, and will get worse.”
Price at forecast: $1,250.65 USD/oz on 10 December, 2017.
Forecast result: $1,354.95 on 25 January was the the 2018 high.
2016
$10,000 – Jim Rickards for The Daily Reckoning
Double digit inflation and the rise of gold
“If you flood the market in dollars of SDRs, one of two things is going to happen. Either that’s going to work, and will be highly inflationary, which is going to take gold to $10,000 an ounce, or it’s not going to work, in which case you’re going to have to go back to a gold standard, in which case it’s going to be $10,000 an ounce.”
Price at forecast: $1,318.75 USD/oz on 26 August, 2016.
$22,000 to $50,000 – Hugo Salinas Price, Mexican Civic Association for Silver
Revaluation of gold coming – gold price to $22,000 per ounce?
Price at forecast: $1,113.60 USD/oz on 26 January, 2016.
2015
$13,000 long term – Peter Schiff
What to take away from this bold Peter Schiff gold prediction
Price at forecast: $1,181.40 USD/oz on 15 June, 2015.
$25,000 over the next decade plus – Avi Gilburt
The next great bull market: Gold $25,000
Price at forecast: $1,164.60 USD/oz on 5 June, 2015.
2014
$10,000 – Jason Hamlin for Kitco
$10,000 gold, is it possible?
“…the prospect of 5-digit gold is not so far-fetched. Gold at $10,000 or higher is not as unlikely as many people would think.”
Price at forecast: $1,322.80 USD/oz on 9 July, 2014.
2013
$10,000 – Albert Edwards, Societe Generale
Warning! Stocks to crash, gold to top $10,000: Albert Edwards
“…our key forecasts of the S&P Composite to bottom around 450, accompanied by sub-1 percent U.S. 10-year yields and gold above $10,000.”
Price at forecast: $1,451 USD/oz on 25 April, 2013.
2012
$10,000 – Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies
Michael Pento: It would be more surprising if gold didn’t go to $10,000
Price at forecast: $1,657.50 USD/oz on 29 December, 2012.
$12,000 – Addison Wiggin at Daily Reckoning
A formula for $12,000 gold
“”The gold coverage ratio has risen above 100% twice during 20th century,” most recently at gold’s 1980 peak. “Were this to happen today, the value of an ounce of gold would exceed $12,000.””
Price at forecast: $1,766.55 USD/oz on 12 October, 2012.
$10,000 – Nick Barisheff, CEO of Bullion Management Group Inc.
Rising debt will lead to $10,000 gold: Barisheff
“Growing debt levels in the developed world will continue to bolster gold into the foreseeable future, bringing with it the potential for the precious metal to eventually reach $10,000 an ounce, noted gold bull Nick Barisheff told a forum in Toronto.”
Price at forecast: $1,616.50 USD/oz on 6 January, 2012.
2011
$10,000 – Ron Paul, U.S Congressman
How Ron Paul would fix the economy
“Congressman Ron Paul fears gold prices could hit $10,000 an ounce if the U.S. doesn’t get its fiscal house in order.”
Price at forecast: $1,544 USD/oz on 20 June, 2011.
2010
$10,000 by 2012 – Arnold Bock, editor of munKNEE.com
Gold going to parabolic top of $10,000 by 2012 – for good reasons
“No wishful thinking here! As I see it gold is going to a parabolic top of $10,000 by 2012 for very good reasons – sovereign debt defaults, bankruptcies of “too big to fail” banks and other financial entities, currency inflation and devaluations – which will all contribute to rampant price inflation.”
Price at forecast: $1,395.50 USD/oz on 5 November, 2010.
$10,000 – Multiple analysts
Why many analysts see gold going as high as $10,000
Price at forecast: $1,226.50 USD/oz on 23 June, 2010.
2008
$10,000 price target for 2015-2020 – Dr Krassimir Petrov
How high can gold go before peaking – Gold Dow Jones ratio important indicator
“To summarize, I believe that both deflation and very strong inflation are not very likely. The likely outcome will be stagflation. Then a $10,000 price of gold is consistent with this view. This is my price target for 2015-2020. My advice is simple – stay with gold and you will be fine in the long run. ”
Price at forecast: $924 USD/oz on 19 February, 2008.
Books
$10,000 Gold: Why Gold’s Inevitable Rise Is the Investor’s Safe Haven by Nick Barisheff.
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